My predictions, not all correct, but not bad!


A friend of mine, Eric Huizer, sent me a mail today reminding me of some predictions I did in 2007:

Developments that have taken place by 2010, as noted by Patrik Fältström:

  1. We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops
  2. $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit
  3. Internet traffic is now heavily localized
  4. Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly local loop
  5. 90% of Internet bits will be video traffic
  6. 600 Gbps at any one point in time on the backbone
  7. VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic

Interesting to see where you were right: I’d say: Right: 2,6 and 7 Almost: 3, 5 Not yet: 1,4

My comments are as follows:

  1. Still (only) 1G interfaces.
  2. Yes, I think that is pretty close.
  3. The traffic is not localized, but content is. I missed prediction of the explosive growth of services like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Flickr etc that drive traffic. So still global traffic, but more local content.
  4. Ads pay for services, i.e. the local loop for services, but not local loop for end users. So wrong.
  5. Video is definitely driving bandwidth, both in the form of broadcast, video on demand and conferencing.
  6. I claim this is correct.
  7. VoIP traffic in some cases exceeded PSTN already in 2007, so that was maybe too easy.

Thanks Eric for the reminder!